Commit 94dd429b authored by Ben Anderson's avatar Ben Anderson
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updated funding source details and author list; re-knit to html & word

parent fbad8bc1
This work was supported by:
* The [University of Otago](https://www.otago.ac.nz/);
* The [University of Southampton](https://www.southampton.ac.uk/);
* The New Zealand [Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE)](http://www.mbie.govt.nz/) through the [NZ GREEN Grid](https://www.otago.ac.nz/centre-sustainability/research/energy/otago050285.html) grant (Contract ID: UOCX1203);
* The UK Office of Gas and Electricity Markets through the [Low Carbon Network Fund](https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/press-releases/ofgem-announces-%C2%A359.4-million-funding-10-innovation-projects)-funded ‘[Solent Achieving Value from Efficiency](http://www.energy.soton.ac.uk/tag/save/)’ (SAVE) project;
* [SPATIALEC](http://www.energy.soton.ac.uk/tag/spatialec/) - a [Marie Skłodowska-Curie Global Fellowship](http://ec.europa.eu/research/mariecurieactions/about-msca/actions/if/index_en.htm) based at the University of Otago’s [Centre for Sustainability](http://www.otago.ac.nz/centre-sustainability/staff/otago673896.html) (2017-2019) & the University of Southampton's Sustainable Energy Research Group (2019-202).
* the UK Office of Gas and Electricity Markets through the [Low Carbon Network Fund](https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/press-releases/ofgem-announces-%C2%A359.4-million-funding-10-innovation-projects)-funded ‘[Solent Achieving Value from Efficiency](http://www.energy.soton.ac.uk/tag/save/)’ (SAVE) project;
* the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the [Marie Sklodowska-Curie](http://ec.europa.eu/research/mariecurieactions/about-msca/actions/if/index_en.htm) grant agreement No 700386 ([SPATIALEC](http://www.energy.soton.ac.uk/tag/spatialec/)) based at the University of Otago’s [Centre for Sustainability](http://www.otago.ac.nz/centre-sustainability/staff/otago673896.html) (2017-2019).
\ No newline at end of file
---
params:
author: 'Ben Anderson and Tom Rushby'
authors: 'Ben Anderson, Tom Rushby, Abubakr Bahaj and Patrick James'
title: 'Statistical Power, Statistical Significance, Study Design and Decision Making: A Worked Example'
subtitle: 'Sizing Demand Response Trials in New Zealand'
title: '`r paste0(params$title)`'
subtitle: '`r paste0(params$subtitle)`'
author: '`r paste0(params$author)` (Contact: b.anderson@soton.ac.uk, `@dataknut`)'
author: '`r paste0(params$authors)` (Contact: b.anderson@soton.ac.uk, `@dataknut`)'
date: 'Last run at: `r Sys.time()`'
always_allow_html: yes
output:
bookdown::word_document2:
fig_caption: yes
toc: yes
toc_depth: 2
bookdown::html_document2:
code_folding: hide
fig_caption: yes
......@@ -17,10 +21,6 @@ output:
toc: yes
toc_depth: 2
toc_float: yes
bookdown::word_document2:
fig_caption: yes
toc: yes
toc_depth: 2
bookdown::pdf_document2:
fig_caption: yes
keep_tex: yes
......@@ -110,7 +110,7 @@ cbbPalette <- c("#000000", "#E69F00", "#56B4E9", "#009E73", "#F0E442", "#0072B2"
If you wish to use any of the material from this paper please cite as:
* `r params$author`. (`r lubridate::year(lubridate::now())`) `r params$title` (`r params$subtitle`), `r myParams$pubLoc`.
* `r params$authors`. (`r lubridate::year(lubridate::now())`) `r params$title` (`r params$subtitle`), `r myParams$pubLoc`.
This work is (c) `r lubridate::year(today())` the authors.
......
......@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@
<meta name="generator" content="pandoc" />
<meta name="author" content="Ben Anderson and Tom Rushby (Contact: b.anderson@soton.ac.uk, @dataknut)" />
<meta name="author" content="Ben Anderson, Tom Rushby, Abubakr Bahaj and Patrick James (Contact: b.anderson@soton.ac.uk, @dataknut)" />
<title>Statistical Power, Statistical Significance, Study Design and Decision Making: A Worked Example</title>
......@@ -238,8 +238,8 @@ div.tocify {
<h1 class="title toc-ignore">Statistical Power, Statistical Significance, Study Design and Decision Making: A Worked Example</h1>
<h3 class="subtitle"><em>Sizing Demand Response Trials in New Zealand</em></h3>
<h4 class="author"><em>Ben Anderson and Tom Rushby (Contact: <a href="mailto:b.anderson@soton.ac.uk">b.anderson@soton.ac.uk</a>, <code>@dataknut</code>)</em></h4>
<h4 class="date"><em>Last run at: 2018-11-28 17:22:51</em></h4>
<h4 class="author"><em>Ben Anderson, Tom Rushby, Abubakr Bahaj and Patrick James (Contact: <a href="mailto:b.anderson@soton.ac.uk">b.anderson@soton.ac.uk</a>, <code>@dataknut</code>)</em></h4>
<h4 class="date"><em>Last run at: 2019-01-08 16:34:45</em></h4>
</div>
......@@ -257,9 +257,9 @@ div.tocify {
<h2><span class="header-section-number">1.2</span> Citation</h2>
<p>If you wish to use any of the material from this paper please cite as:</p>
<ul>
<li>Ben Anderson and Tom Rushby. (2018) Statistical Power, Statistical Significance, Study Design and Decision Making: A Worked Example (Sizing Demand Response Trials in New Zealand), Southampton: University of Southampton.</li>
<li>Ben Anderson, Tom Rushby, Abubakr Bahaj and Patrick James. (2019) Statistical Power, Statistical Significance, Study Design and Decision Making: A Worked Example (Sizing Demand Response Trials in New Zealand), Southampton: University of Southampton.</li>
</ul>
<p>This work is (c) 2018 the authors.</p>
<p>This work is (c) 2019 the authors.</p>
</div>
<div id="history" class="section level2">
<h2><span class="header-section-number">1.3</span> History</h2>
......@@ -276,11 +276,8 @@ div.tocify {
<h2><span class="header-section-number">1.5</span> Acknowledgements</h2>
<p>This work was supported by:</p>
<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.otago.ac.nz/">University of Otago</a>;</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.southampton.ac.uk/">University of Southampton</a>;</li>
<li>The New Zealand <a href="http://www.mbie.govt.nz/">Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE)</a> through the <a href="https://www.otago.ac.nz/centre-sustainability/research/energy/otago050285.html">NZ GREEN Grid</a> grant (Contract ID: UOCX1203);</li>
<li>The UK Office of Gas and Electricity Markets through the <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/press-releases/ofgem-announces-%C2%A359.4-million-funding-10-innovation-projects">Low Carbon Network Fund</a>-funded ‘<a href="http://www.energy.soton.ac.uk/tag/save/">Solent Achieving Value from Efficiency</a>’ (SAVE) project;</li>
<li><a href="http://www.energy.soton.ac.uk/tag/spatialec/">SPATIALEC</a> - a <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/research/mariecurieactions/about-msca/actions/if/index_en.htm">Marie Skłodowska-Curie Global Fellowship</a> based at the University of Otago’s <a href="http://www.otago.ac.nz/centre-sustainability/staff/otago673896.html">Centre for Sustainability</a> (2017-2019) &amp; the University of Southampton’s Sustainable Energy Research Group (2019-202).</li>
<li>the UK Office of Gas and Electricity Markets through the <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/press-releases/ofgem-announces-%C2%A359.4-million-funding-10-innovation-projects">Low Carbon Network Fund</a>-funded ‘<a href="http://www.energy.soton.ac.uk/tag/save/">Solent Achieving Value from Efficiency</a>’ (SAVE) project;</li>
<li>the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/research/mariecurieactions/about-msca/actions/if/index_en.htm">Marie Sklodowska-Curie</a> grant agreement No 700386 (<a href="http://www.energy.soton.ac.uk/tag/spatialec/">SPATIALEC</a>) based at the University of Otago’s <a href="http://www.otago.ac.nz/centre-sustainability/staff/otago673896.html">Centre for Sustainability</a> (2017-2019).</li>
</ul>
</div>
......@@ -945,27 +942,27 @@ Figure 4.2: Power analysis results (power = 0.8)
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td align="left">1</td>
<td align="right">199.7797</td>
<td align="right">165.67094</td>
<td align="right">5</td>
<td align="right">219.9445</td>
<td align="right">174.63250</td>
<td align="right">3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td align="left">2</td>
<td align="right">266.7466</td>
<td align="right">50.77998</td>
<td align="right">9</td>
<td align="right">245.5305</td>
<td align="right">29.07944</td>
<td align="right">7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td align="left">3</td>
<td align="right">527.6414</td>
<td align="right">346.87919</td>
<td align="right">15</td>
<td align="right">456.6428</td>
<td align="right">297.16180</td>
<td align="right">14</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td align="left">4+</td>
<td align="right">355.9932</td>
<td align="right">246.71091</td>
<td align="right">21</td>
<td align="right">337.1304</td>
<td align="right">221.18396</td>
<td align="right">26</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
......@@ -987,21 +984,21 @@ Figure 4.2: Power analysis results (power = 0.8)
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td align="right">199.7797</td>
<td align="right">527.6414</td>
<td align="right">-327.8617</td>
<td align="right">-2.82063</td>
<td align="right">0.0128783</td>
<td align="right">-575.5436</td>
<td align="right">-80.17989</td>
<td align="right">219.9445</td>
<td align="right">456.6428</td>
<td align="right">-236.6983</td>
<td align="right">-1.844202</td>
<td align="right">0.1249639</td>
<td align="right">-567.4628</td>
<td align="right">94.06627</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>The results show that the mean power demand for the control group was 527.64W and for Intervention 1 was 199.78W. This is a (very) large difference in the mean of 327.86. The results of the t test are:</p>
<p>The results show that the mean power demand for the control group was 456.64W and for Intervention 1 was 219.94W. This is a (very) large difference in the mean of 236.7. The results of the t test are:</p>
<ul>
<li>effect size = 328W or 62% representing a <em>substantial bang for buck</em> for whatever caused the difference;</li>
<li>95% confidence interval for the test = -575.54 to -80.18 representing <em>considerable</em> uncertainty/variation;</li>
<li>p value of 0.013 representing a <em>relatively low</em> risk of a false positive result but which (just) fails the conventional p &lt; 0.05 threshold.</li>
<li>effect size = 237W or 52% representing a <em>substantial bang for buck</em> for whatever caused the difference;</li>
<li>95% confidence interval for the test = -567.46 to 94.07 representing <em>considerable</em> uncertainty/variation;</li>
<li>p value of 0.125 representing a <em>relatively low</em> risk of a false positive result but which (just) fails the conventional p &lt; 0.05 threshold.</li>
</ul>
<p>T test 1 &lt;-&gt; 4+</p>
<table>
......@@ -1019,21 +1016,21 @@ Figure 4.2: Power analysis results (power = 0.8)
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td align="right">199.7797</td>
<td align="right">355.9932</td>
<td align="right">-156.2135</td>
<td align="right">-1.705672</td>
<td align="right">0.1228453</td>
<td align="right">-363.944</td>
<td align="right">51.51696</td>
<td align="right">219.9445</td>
<td align="right">337.1304</td>
<td align="right">-117.1859</td>
<td align="right">-1.067661</td>
<td align="right">0.3689357</td>
<td align="right">-480.9376</td>
<td align="right">246.5658</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Now:</p>
<ul>
<li>effect size = 156W or 43.88% representing a still <em>reasonable bang for buck</em> for whatever caused the difference;</li>
<li>95% confidence interval for the test = -363.94 to 51.52 representing <em>even greater</em> uncertainty/variation;</li>
<li>p value of 0.123 representing a <em>higher</em> risk of a false positive result which fails the conventional p &lt; 0.05 threshold and also the less conservative p &lt; 0.1.</li>
<li>effect size = 117W or 34.76% representing a still <em>reasonable bang for buck</em> for whatever caused the difference;</li>
<li>95% confidence interval for the test = -480.94 to 246.57 representing <em>even greater</em> uncertainty/variation;</li>
<li>p value of 0.369 representing a <em>higher</em> risk of a false positive result which fails the conventional p &lt; 0.05 threshold and also the less conservative p &lt; 0.1.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div id="getting-it-right" class="section level2">
......@@ -1054,27 +1051,27 @@ Figure 4.2: Power analysis results (power = 0.8)
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td align="left">1</td>
<td align="right">181.7009</td>
<td align="right">151.61975</td>
<td align="right">87</td>
<td align="right">176.4068</td>
<td align="right">151.94566</td>
<td align="right">88</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td align="left">2</td>
<td align="right">284.9767</td>
<td align="right">64.27473</td>
<td align="right">157</td>
<td align="right">276.2114</td>
<td align="right">59.33808</td>
<td align="right">156</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td align="left">3</td>
<td align="right">512.7269</td>
<td align="right">291.45021</td>
<td align="right">289</td>
<td align="right">486.1851</td>
<td align="right">296.32261</td>
<td align="right">281</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td align="left">4+</td>
<td align="right">421.9563</td>
<td align="right">271.98331</td>
<td align="right">467</td>
<td align="right">423.5017</td>
<td align="right">265.73994</td>
<td align="right">475</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
......@@ -1101,20 +1098,20 @@ Figure 5.1: Mean W demand per group for large sample (Error bars = 95% confidenc
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td align="right">181.7009</td>
<td align="right">512.7269</td>
<td align="right">-331.026</td>
<td align="right">-14.01147</td>
<td align="right">176.4068</td>
<td align="right">486.1851</td>
<td align="right">-309.7783</td>
<td align="right">-12.92046</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">-377.5317</td>
<td align="right">-284.5203</td>
<td align="right">-356.967</td>
<td align="right">-262.5896</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>In this case:</p>
<ul>
<li>effect size = 331.0260257W or 64.56% representing a still <em>reasonable bang for buck</em> for whatever caused the difference;</li>
<li>95% confidence interval for the test = -377.53 to -284.52 representing <em>much less</em> uncertainty/variation;</li>
<li>effect size = 309.778282W or 63.72% representing a still <em>reasonable bang for buck</em> for whatever caused the difference;</li>
<li>95% confidence interval for the test = -356.97 to -262.59 representing <em>much less</em> uncertainty/variation;</li>
<li>p value of 0 representing a <em>very low</em> risk of a false positive result as it passes all conventional thresholds.</li>
</ul>
<p>re-run T tests 1 person vs 4+</p>
......@@ -1133,20 +1130,20 @@ Figure 5.1: Mean W demand per group for large sample (Error bars = 95% confidenc
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td align="right">181.7009</td>
<td align="right">421.9563</td>
<td align="right">-240.2554</td>
<td align="right">-11.68658</td>
<td align="right">176.4068</td>
<td align="right">423.5017</td>
<td align="right">-247.0949</td>
<td align="right">-12.1879</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">-280.7865</td>
<td align="right">-199.7243</td>
<td align="right">-287.0707</td>
<td align="right">-207.1191</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>In this case:</p>
<ul>
<li>effect size = 240.255403W or 56.94% representing a still <em>reasonable bang for buck</em> for whatever caused the difference;</li>
<li>95% confidence interval for the test = -280.79 to -199.72 representing <em>much less</em> uncertainty/variation;</li>
<li>effect size = 247.094924W or 58.35% representing a still <em>reasonable bang for buck</em> for whatever caused the difference;</li>
<li>95% confidence interval for the test = -287.07 to -207.12 representing <em>much less</em> uncertainty/variation;</li>
<li>p value of 0 representing a <em>very low</em> risk of a false positive result as it passes all conventional thresholds.</li>
</ul>
</div>
......@@ -1168,7 +1165,7 @@ Figure 5.1: Mean W demand per group for large sample (Error bars = 95% confidenc
</div>
<div id="runtime" class="section level1">
<h1><span class="header-section-number">8</span> Runtime</h1>
<p>Analysis completed in 45.84 seconds ( 0.76 minutes) using <a href="https://cran.r-project.org/package=knitr">knitr</a> in <a href="http://www.rstudio.com">RStudio</a> with R version 3.5.1 (2018-07-02) running on x86_64-apple-darwin15.6.0.</p>
<p>Analysis completed in 35.98 seconds ( 0.6 minutes) using <a href="https://cran.r-project.org/package=knitr">knitr</a> in <a href="http://www.rstudio.com">RStudio</a> with R version 3.5.1 (2018-07-02) running on x86_64-apple-darwin15.6.0.</p>
</div>
<div id="r-environment" class="section level1">
<h1><span class="header-section-number">9</span> R environment</h1>
......
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